Filmmakers often reference the pressure to make sequels bigger than the original. If 2026 is seen as a sequel, it may just follow through on banking observers’ predictions that it will surpass its preceding year. More deals. More new banks. More regulation (in contrast to 2025’s stripping down of rules).
The banking sphere saw 181 mergers and acquisitions in 2025, according to S&P Global. Brian Graham, co-founder of the financial services advisory firm Klaros Group, predicted 2026 could see double that figure, given pent-up pressure from slower activity early in the decade – and a much quicker evaluation period by regulators.
And to compound matters, some analysts expect that banks looking to make a deal may act sooner rather than later in case 2026 midterm elections – or the 2028 vote – send the political pendulum in another direction.
Smaller banks, though, may see their “buyer universe” shrink as the midsize lenders they once counted on as potential acquirers become acquisition targets for bigger banks.
M&A isn’t the only area where numbers are spiking. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency saw 18 de novo applications filed in 2025. Michele Alt, another Klaros co-founder, estimated the agency could see 25 this year. And, indeed, after only January, that field already includes Bunq, Trump crypto firm World Liberty Financial and Nomura spinoff Laser Digital.
If 2025 marked a year of deregulation – wherein agencies rolled back Biden-era rules that lost favor – 2026 may be the year Trump-appointed regulators mold rules to their liking.
Here are some of the trends Banking Dive thinks will take center stage in 2026.
